The population is set to decline from a 2002 peak of 82m to 74.5m by 2050, according to the United Nations. The percentage of Germans under 15 is forecast to fall to 13 per cent, among the worlds lowest. The share of those over 60 is expected to rise from 27 per cent to 39 per cent.
Pensions and heath care costs are expected to grow more rapidly than the long-term economic growth rate, increasing the burden on a shrinking working population. In Germany the total cost of the elderly to the public purse is forecast by the European Commission to rise from 24 per cent of gross domestic product in 2013 to 28 per cent in 2040. In the UK the share is expected to grow from 22 per cent to 24 per cent and in France to stay flat at around 31 per cent.