US first-quarter growth weakest in three years, as consumer spending falters Q1 0.7% GDP
"At best a 2% economy"
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/28/first-estimate-of-2017-q1-gdp.html
Jawboning an economy with a GDP of $18.5 trillion can hardly make "all the difference in the world."
So far Obama care has not been significantly improved, at least nothing that remotely fulfills Trump's over the top campaign promises.
There is nothing in the political environment in the Senate which would lead a reasonable observer to believe that the bill will be "improved." Except that the ever increasing costs will be freighted from the premium payer to the taxpayer-or more likely to the federal treasury as debt.
I think the most important improvement is to get Zerocare out.
No, economy will be a lot better than 2%. I think last quarter was over 3%. First quarter still Obama’s. Yes, Jawboning is incredibly powerful.
Keynes said “animal spirits” drive everything economic. George Gilder said the same thing in “Wealth & Poverty.” ALL economics is driven by fear/security or hope/greed. We have moved from the former to the latter. You can see this isn the weak consumer #s, which are a great indicator of moving toward hope. One theory is that people buy stuff if they think they won’t have money in the future to get it. “Eat, drink, & be merry.” If there confidence in the future, it triggers saving and investment. We have definitely moved into an investment economy with all the incredible new expansions and business startups, combined with rapidly rising employment.
Even very slight marginal tweaks to health care bill can remove billions of dollars in taxes that will spark businesses to be more profitable. In the House version, just the taxes saved alone make it a decent bill.
I see a fundamental economic reorganization taking place under Trump-—so far, even without any legislation. Because it’s all about signals: what will the IRS/Pres/reg agencies do? And he’s sending all the right signals.