I think we will squeak by here. What you are seeing is the "early vote" and Democrats were definitely energized to steal this one. But Osoff has dropped to about 60% and now "same-day" votes will start coming in. I think Trump's tweets today woke a lot of people up to get to the polls. We will soon see.
His tweets also energized democrats. It cuts both ways, and in addition, Trump personally made it about him with those tweets.