Judge Gorsuch's Path to 60 Votes 'Closing Fast'

Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch’s path to 60 votes is rapidly closing — setting the stage for a nuclear showdown in the Senate as soon as next week.

Senior Democratic sources are now increasingly confident that Gorsuch can’t clear a filibuster, saying his ceiling is likely mid- to upper-50s on the key procedural vote. That would mark the first successful filibuster of a Supreme Court nominee since Abe Fortas for chief justice in the 1960s.

In the latest ominous sign for the federal judge from Colorado, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) said Monday he’ll oppose Gorsuch on the cloture vote, which is expected late next week. More than a decade ago, Nelson helped break a filibuster of now-Justice Samuel Alito.

If Democrats successfully filibuster Gorsuch, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has heavily telegraphed that he will invoke the so-called nuclear option to unilaterally change Senate rules with a simple majority vote. And Republicans are confident they’ll have the votes to do it, even as wary as many senators are about forever altering the deliberative nature of the chamber.

“We’re not going to be treated by a double standard,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said in an interview on Monday. “We’ll give our Democratic colleagues a chance to see if they provide the 60 votes; if they do, it’s a moot point. And if they don’t, as I said before, we will confirm him one way or the other.”

Gorsuch got through his marathon confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee without any obvious gaffe or misstep. But Democrats said he stonewalled the committee when pressed repeatedly about his judicial philosophy, and many have since announced they’ll vote to block his nomination.

170324_trump_staff_gty_1160.jpg WHITE HOUSE White House looks to rack up wins after health care calamity By TARA PALMERI So far, only one Senate Democrat has firmly said he’s willing to help advance Gorsuch’s nomination to a final confirmation vote: Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a moderate who is seeking another meeting with the judge this week to weigh his credentials.

“I’ve always been for cloture,” Manchin told Politico when asked whether he would vote to advance Gorsuch’s nomination, even if he ultimately opposes him. “I’ve always been, basically, ‘I’m not going to filibuster.’”

Sen. Jon Tester of Montana said he is “still undecided,” as did Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia said he’s continuing to study Gorsuch’s record and that the threat of the nuclear option wouldn’t influence his choice. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who like Nelson voted to break the filibuster on Alito, said Gorsuch’s stance on privacy rights would be a central factor in her still-unmade decision on confirmation.

“I’m reviewing the hearings,” said Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who is facing parochial pressure to back Gorsuch because the judge hails from Denver.

Even Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who told a local reporter in Vermont over the weekend that he is “not inclined to filibuster,” quickly walked that back in a series of tweets Monday amid a flurry of constituent calls organized by liberal groups. The former Judiciary Committee chairman said Gorsuch will be blocked unless the judge “provides real answers” to written questions for the record. Those written responses from Gorsuch are expected back to the committee sometime midweek.

The nuclear battle could erupt as early as next Thursday. The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote to advance Gorsuch’s nomination on April 3 after Democrats successfully secured a one-week delay in the committee. The earliest McConnell could file cloture is Tuesday, April 4, which would tee up a Thursday vote to end the filibuster on Gorsuch’s nomination.

While Republicans are still publicly hopeful that eight Democrats will allow Gorsuch to proceed to a final up-or-down confirmation vote, they’re already preparing for the last ditch, nuclear scenario if — or when — Democrats mount the first successful party-line filibuster in history.

POLITICO Huddle A preview of the day's congressional news — in your inbox. Email Your email… Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. GOP leaders remain publicly and privately confident that Gorsuch will be confirmed to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia before senators leave for the two-week Easter recess in early April. And institutional Republicans long skittish about deploying the nuclear option are now much less nervous about using the provocative procedural maneuver.

“When they’re in charge, they grab power,” Sen. Lindsey Graham said of Democrats. The South Carolina Republican said he would support the nuclear option as a “last resort.”

If Democrats successfully filibuster Gorsuch, Graham added, it would say “that qualifications will no longer matter. There’s no way you can argue that this man’s not qualified. He got the highest rating that the American Bar Association can give somebody. So it means that ideology matters.”

Even Susan Collins (R-Maine), who like Graham is among three remaining senators from the “Gang of 14” that helped defuse a brewing nuclear battle over judicial nominations a dozen years ago, left the door open to backing the nuclear option.

“I would be very disheartened if we had to take that step because I’m a strong believer in the rules of the institution,” Collins said in an interview Monday. “But clearly, it would be unfair if we cannot get a straight up-or-down vote on Judge Gorsuch.”

Democrats are under heavy pressure to oppose Gorsuch from liberal activists emboldened by Friday’s collapse of the GOP effort to repeal Obamacare. The party’s unified opposition during the health care fight has helped left-leaning activists sell their message on Gorsuch: Sticking together on a filibuster can add more political momentum heading into next year’s midterms.

Liberal groups that have fought both Gorsuch and the GOP’s Obamacare repeal bid are now homing in on the judge, cheering the growing number of Democrats declaring their opposition as they plan for a nationwide Supreme Court protest on Saturday.

Sen. Coons on Gorsuch: 'I doubt he is going to get 60 votes' Sen. Coons: Republican nuclear option to confirm Gorsuch is ‘tragic’ By KELSEY SUTTON NARAL Pro-Choice America President Ilyse Hogue described the Republican collapse on health care as “obviously a good thing” for Gorsuch opponents. But Hogue expects the GOP to work even harder this week to persuade Democrats to back down from a possible nuclear showdown with McConnell.

“The Trump administration needs a win” to avoid a lackluster first 100 days in office, Hogue said, while conservatives “who held their noses and got behind Trump’s candidacy for this reason specifically — this is absolutely the Holy Grail to them — those are the converging forces that show me they’re going to double down.”

Still, liberals have reason to believe that the tide has turned in their direction, even if a successful filibuster forces McConnell to push a historic change to Senate rules. Several anti-Gorsuch activists question whether McConnell locked down the 51 votes needed to quash the minority’s power to filibuster Supreme Court nominees.

And the Democratic base is feeling good about a minority leader whose early moves had some on the left worried he might be too willing to accommodate the White House. “Schumer has stepped up,” one prominent progressive said.

“Seeing Trump give up the moment going gets tough stiffened Democrats’ spines to fight hard for their principles on Gorsuch,” MoveOn.org Washington director Ben Wikler said. “It’s clear that if Democrats are united around popular principles, and fight back hard, they can win.”

The "nuclear option" changes nothing in the real work, all it is is a change in their MO.

The Senate loves to sit around talking about how they are "the worlds most exclusive club" and "the worlds greatest deliberative body" and BS like that. The fact is that since the 17A, the only difference in the Senate and the House is the size of the body.

The country could chit-can the Senate and we wouldn't be out a thing.

The 17th was a terrible amendment.

I’m surprised as can be that the states bought that. It was their only direct input into the federal government.

It was like having a national board of state assemblymen working for them up in Washington DC.

How was a House of Lords better?

‘course I’m not a politician, but I can’t see a big deal here. Change the rule, have the vote to confirm Gorsuch, then change the rule back.

Something wrong with this approach?

The 17th was a terrible amendment.

I’m surprised as can be that the states bought that. It was their only direct input into the federal government.

Yes. I do wonder, tho, if there couldn’t be a workaround . . . suppose that the state legislature limited the names on the ballot for senator to two candidates, and those two were nominated by the state’s legislators, each of whom would cast only one vote. Thus, the Republican legislators would nominate a senatorial candidate, and the Democrat legislators would nominate another.
Thus, the state legislative majority could consider that it had nominated the state’s senator, subject to a veto by the state’s voting public. And I’m not even certain that a constitutional amendment would be necessary to allow that.

The 17th was pushed because the argument of the day was that state legislatures were all bought off by the railroads. Probably some truth to that! Professional politicians at any level tend to be “bought” by somebody!

Yes and what is sad is a non-biased media would say so and scold the democrats for it. BUT... They are joined at the hip and encourage each other to be more and more outrageous as time goes on.

I hope somewhere, somehow people—at least enough people—see that this is nothing but revenge and hurts the country.

Who knows, maybe by rejecting Judge Gorsuch the rest of the country will give the media and dems an earful that they’ve simply gone to far!

I’ve had major problems with McConnell over the years; however, he does have a good history of fighting hard to get Republican judges confirmed.

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