It’s not ideological fatalism.
It’s mechanism fatalism. All that can pass the Senate is what can get past the Parliamentarian. Only budget Reconciliation can get past the Parliamentarian.
You can’t extract text that describes the individual mandate. That’s not budgetary. The Parliamentarian would say, nope, that can’t be in a Reconciliation bill. You have to vote it as a normal bill, and that would be subject to Filibuster.
But you CAN set the individual mandate fine to $0. That’s what Ryan did. It will get thru because it’s purely budgetary.
The extremists are demanding the text be pulled because “in the future the Dems can just increase $0 higher”. But if you pull the text you need 60. It is no longer merely Reconciliation.
So . . . yes, I am predicting what will be in the Senate version, but not ideologically.
I am not talking about the individual mandate. I am talking about the removal of the minimum requirements for all insurance plans. That is what is being talked about on the House side.