Turkey Will Be Alone If It Attacks Syria’s Kurds in This City Don’t mess with Manbij

For months now the Turkish government has been threatening to seize the northwestern Syrian city of Manbij from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a coalition of U.S.-backed Arab and Kurdish fighters.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said multiple times that once the Turkish military and its Free Syrian Army allies seize the nearby city of Al Bab from the Islamic State, they will march on Manbij.

The Turkish army is presently bogged down in Al Bab, where the operation is at a critical juncture. Premature reports in the pro-government Turkish press and statements by Turkish officials that declare the city has been liberated — or is on the verge of being liberated — are relatively frequent, perhaps an indication of confusion or desperation.

Chances are, the Turkish military will take Al Bab. But if Erdogan gives the order and the army then moves onto Manbij, it will likely march alone.

Washington has refused to support Turkish attacks on the SDF or the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) — the largest and most important group in that coalition— since Turkey began Operation Euphrates Shield in northwest Syria in August 2016.

Give Erdogan a little time and that will happen.

At first I discounted the accusation that the Coup attempt was a fake. But the action since then and the 7th Floor firings have made me much more receptive to the idea that it was never an active coup attempt, but a chance for him to remove his potential opponents in the military. Because of what he plans to do. He has no intention of ever leaving Iraq or Syria. He really wanted to take over Syria himself. (The Bitch and the Bastard both helped him toward that)

If Turkiye designs to capture Manbij then Turkiye will capture Manbij. It may be very very expensive but Erdogan will not lose face by failing to take Manbij once he has undertaken the project. The Turkish army is large enough to sacrifice many soldiers in the attempt. Turkiye can either decide not to assault Manbij or it can be deterred by the United States. Russia may not be able to keep it from happening. Whatever rapprochement seems to be occurring between Russia and the Turks is totally superficial. The Russian Turkish enmity has endured for centuries. Moscow has always seen itself as heir to the Greek Empire and the Turks see it the same way.

Ultimately, yes that is reality.

I’m not sure Erdogan is living in the real world. His Ottoman Daydream is so real to him, he actually believe he is chosen to do it.

That is a very dangerous thing.

Kurds have no armor. However Syria has armor and aircraft. The Syrian Army is directly across Al-Bab from Turkish Army. The US support for some of Turkey’s terrorist allies has been stopped. So US will not fly air support, it is questionable if Russia will, SDF is now pretty strong and there is another element that could appear. Won’t mention that by name. It is better not to.

There is a lot of animosity against Kurds by Turks in Turkey. Erdogan has been whipping it up big time over the last 1-2 years. Kurdish PKK terrorist attacks have killed far more Turks in Turkey, than the IRA ever did against the British.

Attaturk was kind of a psuedo-facist nationalist, with strong racial overtones which were so fashionable between the World Wars, when Attaturk was modeling his military on the Germans, and adopting a new legal system from the Italians.

Whipping up anti-Kurdish sentiment (effectively launching a civil war against Kurds in Turkey), was how Erdogan recaptured an absolute majority for his AKP party in the legislature, after they briefly lost it. There are serious bad feelings and heated prejudice is common. The head of the largely Kurdish HDP Party was just thrown out of the Turkish Parliament, and hundreds of HDP people were rounded up and imprisoned - perhaps as a precaution before launching an offensive against Kurds in Syria.

The Turks have such a large military, that no one wants to try to stop them, if they insist on attacking the Syrian Kurds. The conventional wisdom in the region is “Let the Turks bleed”, hoping that they tire of it, or that it becomes a domestic political problem. Then if they have to fight, at least the Turks will already be wounded.

The Kurds have a saying: “Arabs, Turks, Persians - our only friends are the mountains.” They survive by fighting hard, and making themselves useful to the various neighbors, as offsets against the other neighbors. Alliances are always shifting over there. When push comes to shove, local Arabs (Syria) and Persians (Iran) would likely rather funnel support to the Kurds, than see the Turks decisively win.

Since the USA is in a formal alliance with Turkey (NATO), we can’t really provide decisive weaponry (Anti-tank, anti-air missiles) to Kurds, for fighting Turkey. Turkey can field 1,000 main battle tanks if they are pissed (or could, before the coup attempt) - the Kurds don’t really have any modern tanks. So Turkey could roll over Kurdish areas if they are determined, but the Kurds could (will) revert to guerilla warfare, and inflict lots of casualties.

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