I’m not familiar with that model so I don’t know what it was showing in previous events. There was alot of snowmelt even in the winter with the “warm” huge rain events
This next system will be a warm light-moderate rain even at higher elevations which actually melts snow rather fast..I assume that is in the model data
keep in mind the snow pack is actually very solid since alot of it soaked up all the rain and refroze repeating that process many times
The solid older snow will melt slowly even in warm sunny weather....
After this system all models agree an extended period of dry weather into MAY...looking at the 8 station rainfall index from previous years, in some cases it flatlines from May 1st onward and in almost all cases after June 1st
translation: this may be the last meaningful rain event for a long while...perhaps of the season unless the pattern changes in early May
of course there could always be a freak event late too after the last spill....and with the way this water year is going so far there probably will be
Results: If there was no delay from the mountains to the reservoir, and if there was no "storage" of this water from upstream dams, Oroville's reservoir would rise 2.40 feet for three days (each) [if the spillway was off & no outflow from Hyatt]. At the moment, they are lowering at 1.896 ft per day (based on last 10 hour rate).
This would mean that the reservoir would rise 1.512 feet after three days. Because of the delay from the mountains and possible upstream storage effects (if any), the real result will be that the reservoir slope will likely draw near flat or very slow downward slope for few day period starting later in this week.