with part of the power plant online and less rain the pace(and slope of your graph) of should indicated faster rate drop...
IMO the updated target of May 6th(aka through the last week of May) looks decent for the next stop
looks like a weak-moderate system mon-weds with 1/3 inch of rain at the DAM and 1-2 in the mts at this point
after that the pattern look drier as high pressure builds in....which is typical for this time of year as the dry season looms
I assume that there is still some slippage of that wall even at these lower levels...the longer it runs the more it slips.
Congrats on a great thread!
It occurs to me that we could start a pool to guess when the “loose” piece of the spillway tumbles into Moonbeam Canyon. I’ll start with May 5, before 5 pm Pacific.
Simple Answer: On average, yes.
Subtleties: The "failing" of what is causing the "slip" is more complex and likely is different depending on the hydrostatic flow weight on the slab, rock, and tension of the slab anchor rods to rock securement. At 35,000 cfs the hydrostatic flow weight of the water is near 1.366 million lbs applied to the 50ft long by 178ft wide damaged chute section. At 50,000 cfs the weight is near 1.952 million lbs. A 30% increase in weight.
I suspect the key factor to the "slip" is the complex slab flexure, from this weight, that slightly bends open the myriad of micro cracks in the spillway. This determines the volume of pressurized water that is washing below in void areas under the concrete slabs. This erosion, pressurized water penetration into the fractured rock, and vertical pressure from the weight of the water on top of the chute slabs, will combine in a stress to the foundation of the damaged area.
The 30% difference in weight could make a notable difference in the "slight bending" and water penetration via the opening of the micro-cracks. Thus there could be a significant reduction in the rate of pressurized water penetration that is key in exacerbating (accelerates) the "slip" damage. This is called a non-linear relationship (curve).
** (178ft wide x 50ft slab x velocity x height), 62.458 lbs sq foot, equal linear flow (cross sectional w/ no differential velocities), flow velocity in ft/s from high speed video of 50 ft section @ 35,000 cfs.