Hi janetjanet998, Yes, at the current rate of discharge and inflow, the reservoir spill could take a number of days longer than the originally estimated 10-14 days stated by DWR. Assuming that this slope follows, of the last 8 days, it could take close to 30 days to get to the last "turn-off" elevation at 836.28 ft. This would push the date to May 14.
note: this graph projection will vary based on Hyatt power plant discharge augmentation & future precipitation inflow (including snowmelt).
Another point of interest: Note the slope angle change in the last "run off". DWR started the spillway at 50,000 cfs, back then, and later reduced the rate to 40,000 cfs. This is reflected in the slope angle change. Again, it could have been related to a noticing of a "shift" in the optical targets, initiating a "slowing" to try to stabilize the movement of the damaged section. DWR has not revealed any information regarding this matter. IT may be the reason why DWR is limiting the outflow to 35,000 cfs in this current spill. Perhaps, because of a "time squeeze", DWR may take a risk and up the spillway flow?
At the current rate of discharge, the reservoir spill could require 30 days to reach 836.29 ft, placing a "turn-off" date at May 14.
