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To: Ray76; Grampa Dave; Jim 0216; WildHighlander57; meyer; Repeal The 17th; KC Burke; Oldexpat; ...
Politics of Engineering Judgement: How Failure is introduced…

Continuing from a discussion:... "When such entities encounter critical design issues, the dynamics of this "political sense of engineering" may result in consequential outcomes. THE MOST consequential outcome, for Oroville's Flood Control scheme, originated from a crisis from hydraulic fluid flow test studies. A huge problem forced a re-design of the original concept, that ultimately led to the design as it is today. From the series of events that followed, a decision tree may be traced that reveals a "political dynamic" in tradeoffs that occurred."...

= =

The information below reveals the evidence of "political forms of engineering decisions" that resulted in a flawed total spillway design (true specs/performance) & violated the norms of high standards of dam engineering safety assurance. By simply "deeming" the use of a Weir based Emergency Spillway as "infrequent" and exceeding estimates of 10,000 yr maximum usage conditions, a "rationale was justified" to allow a "political solution" to introduce a significant design flaw in engineering judgement. This dangerous "rationale" justification propagated into other evidence of lesser importance consideration factors including non-anchoring of the Weir, non-concern for damaging erosion, no consideration to construct armor protection of the hillside, make the Weir long enough as needed to meet a flow "number", etc. All justified due to an introduced "reasoned minimal use" of a long Emergency Spillway Weir [6]. LEFT OUT of this "rationale" was the imperative safety necessity of REDUNDANCY in case of failure. i.e. The Main Spillway became supercritical in that any failure to the Main Spillway structure HAD NO backup (no redundancy as ES had high risk - unproven/tested [5]- and validated to be flawed) & that could risk the entire dam.

These type of "rationale" justified decisions, that lack a full comprehensive engineering thoroughness, is what leads to grand failures (in the politics of engineering judgement).

The Original Oroville Dam Spillway was presented to the public where it had a design capable of handling standard condition floods up to 440,000 cfs and worst case floods up to 720,000 cfs (reservoir inflow). As presented, the public could be assured that the design could handle worst case conditions such as the 1861-1862 MegaFlood. To meet this criteria, the flood control spillway was originally designed for a total 620,000 cfs flow using a massive "delta" set of combined gate structures of a "main" and "emergency" headworks. See the Artist's concept painting [1]. IN this design, there is NO erodible hillside flow spillway [2].

Then a Crisis occurred in scale model testing of this design. "Fins", "Standing Waves", and "monster splashing" (up to 100+ ft re: model scale) were becoming too challenging to resolve [3][4]. Turbulence and Eddy swirls aggravated the challenge. The cost of the fixes, in the fix design construction, was becoming more extensive from deeper rock excavation and higher concrete volume requirements. In the summation of these mounting design challenges, the California Department of Water Resources stepped in and made a "command decision" to break the combined design into two separate structures[5]; A main spillway with a separate Emergency Spillway Weir (as it is today & Failed at 12,000+ cfs [6]).

+Image [1] Original Design proposed to the public for funding - a combined high capacity spillway - Artist's concept painting.

+Image [2] Original Spillway design with Combined Flood structure - 620,000 cfs total capacity (370,000 cfs main flow + 250,000 cfs emergency flow).

+Image [3] Original Spillway model testing reveals "Fins", "Standing Waves", and "monster splashing" (up to 100+ ft re: model scale) @ 620,000 cfs total capacity (370,000 cfs main flow + 250,000 cfs emergency flow).

+Image [4] 3rd round of "fixes" in model testing still reveals challenges @ 620,000 cfs total capacity (370,000 cfs main flow + 250,000 cfs emergency flow).

+Image [5] California Department of Water Resources steps in and makes a "command decision" ("political engineering") when faced with this design crisis challenge.

+Image [6] Failure is introduced from the "a political engineering decision" with flawed rationale/justification (excludes full scrutiny in engineering thoroughness).

Image [1] Original Design proposed to the public for funding - a combined high capacity spillway - Artist's concept painting.


Image [2] Original Spillway design with Combined Flood structure - 620,000 cfs total capacity (370,000 cfs main flow + 250,000 cfs emergency flow).


Image [3] Original Spillway model testing reveals "Fins", "Standing Waves", and "monster splashing" (up to 100+ ft re: model scale) @ 620,000 cfs total capacity (370,000 cfs main flow + 250,000 cfs emergency flow).


Image [4] 3rd round of "fixes" in model testing still reveals challenges @ 620,000 cfs total capacity (370,000 cfs main flow + 250,000 cfs emergency flow). Note the "hand control angle experimentation" of vanes by engineers.


Image [5] California Department of Water Resources steps in and makes a "command decision" ("political engineering") when faced with this design crisis challenge.


Image [6] Failure is introduced from the "a political engineering decision" with flawed rationale/justification (excludes full scrutiny in engineering thoroughness).



2,596 posted on 03/22/2017 9:29:46 PM PDT by EarthResearcher333
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To: EarthResearcher333

I don’t know...something bothers me about the whole idea...
I have a problem with the concept of building something like that
and capturing that much emery and having no way of neutralizing it.
Like charging a capacitor with no way of grounding it,
or building a bomb with no way to defuse it.
I know they put two ‘bottom drains’ in the original design, but
they did not have the capacity to handle the river load,
and are currently non-functional.


2,597 posted on 03/22/2017 9:38:27 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (I was conceived in liberty, how about you?)
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To: abb; Grampa Dave; Jim 0216; WildHighlander57; meyer; Repeal The 17th; KC Burke; Oldexpat; ...
DWR's 1960's Split spillway "engineering political solution" coming back to haunt the future? (new Failure mode of the entire dam)

Its looking like an "engineering political solution" is coming back to haunt the future. In the 1960's, rather than make the Original combined spillway design of 620,000 cfs work, the intervention of DWR's decision to split the combined spillway into two separate designs has forced a "lock-in" of the new "fixes" (see post link below). Yet another seeming "engineering political solution", possibly related to an expensive price tag, has the consequence of catastrophic destruction of a hillside triggering a "chain of events". This "chain of events" could lead to a swirling back flow that could erode the "toe" of the main dam, thus risking a failure collapse of the whole dam itself. This "failure mode" has been identified by a world renowned leading dam expert Scott Cahill. Scott identifies a dangerous erosion scenario that could cause the "loss of the Oroville dam" (via "eddy swirls" at the toe of the main dam).

The New "Board of Consultants (BOC)", of advising experts to DWR, has stated a requirement of restoration of the rated 646,000 cfs flood capacity of the combined spillway flows (see March 10, 2017 report below). HOWEVER, the new "upped" rating of a huge 396,000 cfs requirement of a new Emergency Spillway includes the caveat: "damage below the Emergency Spillway to be expected". This directly implies that there will be erosive damage. Given the known geology and the actual alarming erosion of "rotten rock" & debris from the last Emergency Spillway incident, the only method to prevent a repeat of this is to armor the hillside all of the way to the Feather River.

We will see how this "damage to be expected" is translated into a new design. Is the "damage" limited to the "armoring itself" or is it damage to an unconsolidated hillside further below an "armoring apron" (or both)? The latter is what could engender a very problematic sequence. (1) If the max rated 396,000 cfs destroys the hillside, a "dam" would form in the Feather River channel. (2) The main spillway chute is upstream, thus flows from the main spillway likely would "backflow" towards the "toe" of the earthen dam. (3) This backflow would form an "eddy swirl" at the "toe" terminus. (4) dangerous destabilizing erosion of the backside toe of the earthen dam would occur. (5) to prevent this "eddy swirl" or partially limit its intensity, the main spillway would need to be slowed or shut off. (6) Further erosion would occur from the Emergency Spillway handling "flood control". This is an inverse repeat of what is currently going on at the dam - BUT- with the exception of a lesser eddy back flow towards the dam (has since been mitigated by the excavation of most of the 1.7 million cubic yards of rock/debris.

The only clean design that "preserves the safety of redundancy" is by fully armoring the Emergency Spillway for the full length of the hillside to the Feather River. But the associated costs for this may become a difficult "political" funding issue.

The 1960's DWR decision is still front and center today

1960's DWR steps in and makes a "command decision" (i.e. "political engineering") when faced with a design crisis challenge creating a *failure* compromise

Expert panel of "Board of Consultants" requiring new Emergency Spillway to handle an upward revised 396,000 cfs down the hillside. "Damage Below the Emergency Spillway To Be Expected".



2,675 posted on 03/25/2017 6:36:13 AM PDT by EarthResearcher333
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