this mornings GFS model just in and its not looking good..keep in mind this is just one model but is one of the main ones used..and will likley change
to sum up...
next couple of days.....precip mostly snow 1-2 inches of total precip
then a break but warm up..
next sunday on ..a very wet warm pattern similar to last month with warm wet storms every 2-3 days thru the end of the model run(march 21)
The GFS last night was the wetter model..the other models had the high pressure stronger forcing the systems more north...
DWR will have this data soon
what to do?
right now the lake is 853 feet..up around 15 feet since the main spillway was shut off...
Do you turn the main spillway back on NOW and keep in going until you let out as much water as you can...then start the debris clean up over again?
Or so you let the lake creep up and hope you get all the 14.000 cfs out soon.
regardless, 14k CFS is nothing as inflows could be over 100K in 2 weeks if the GFS is correct
I think they dredge the channel of what debris and wash-out is causing backup to the power plant. If they can put it back into operation with 14k of flow, that is about a sixth to a third of what they need and that can help allow another shut off in the future for the main spillway.
Thanks for the update on the weather forecast.
Check out abb’s post of the end of the main spillway...