I usually don’t use this kind of language but I’ll make an exception in your case.
You’re an ass.
This isn’t about forecasting weather. This is about a critical situation that really exists and really threatens to kill real people.
People are most likely going to die when that thing lets go and they are not out of the way.
Maybe lots of them if they can’t get out of the path of the flood waters when the dam lets go.
Water is NOT compressible.
That wall of water is going to hit whatever is in it’s path with probably millions of tons of weight and wipe it off the map.
It’s going to be an inland tsunami.
Remember, the depth of reservoir water at risk of a rapid, uncontrolled release is basically only 30-50 feet (down to “good” badrock on the sidehill). I am not minimizing what that amount of water can do in terms of flooding - death and property damage - but it is far from the entire contents of the lake. If the more solid bedrock is deeper yet than the water release could be bigger.