What I think I heard: In the 80 year history of the NFL only 4 teams have come back from a greater deficit to win than the Patriots.
That’s about right, leading me to believe Nate Silver just pulled the .5% chance out of his a**. The actual chance was much less than that.
Confirms my belief that Silver just got lucky a time or two and isn’t any better than a lot of other prognosticators.