It is factually correct to state that many nations in NATO are not paying their fair share (2% of GNP for defense); Europe has in many respects fallen short in the war against terrorism; the European Union is "basically a (trade) vehicle for Germany"; it is likely that other nations will follow Britain's exit from the EU; Angela Merkel is a strong leader; she is facing a tough reelection; her decision to open Germany's borders to migrants and refugees was not a "brave decision" but instead a "very catastrophic mistake".
The second thing to do is to assign weight to various aspects of our relationship to Europe.
The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance has been characterized as the most successful alliance in history and that characterization is probably justified because it in fact perfectly served its originating purpose, the protection of Western Europe against the overwhelming conventional might of the Soviet Union after World War II. On the downside, America as been footing the bill for that protection into an era when much of Europe is wealthier than much of America. Worse, article 5 of the alliance puts America in the reactive position of being drawn into a war at a time and place of Russia's choosing along a huge border, an arc from Turkey well into the Arctic. In other words we have surrendered the power to declare war to more than a score of European countries.
Strategically, NATO is in danger of becoming weak because it is trying to be strong everywhere at America's expense. We are particularly vulnerable in the Baltic and the possibility of stopping a Russian incursion, at least initially, is nil. Formerly, we have deterred the Soviets by leaving them in doubt about whether we would go first strike tactical nuclear. This was the only rational and economic strategy but it played into the hands of Europe's left.
NATO has to be reformed, Trump is absolutely right, and his remarks are more likely the typical Trump opening negotiating positions than the product of ignorance as the New York Times likes to opine.
Both NATO and the European Union have to be preserved but we have to understand why. The greatest strategic threat to the United States comes from a potential alliance of Russia with China which draws some or all of the European nations, especially Germany, into that orbit. If that occurs America will be very isolated and very threatened.
To forestall such a calamity, it is necessary to bring Russia within the economic sphere of the West but that must be preconditioned on understanding by Putin that Europe, combined with America, is too tough a military and economic nut to crack. He must have more carrots but he must also know the sticks are there. At all costs, Russia and China must be kept separate. I think that is WHY REX TILLERSON WAS CHOSEN TO BE SECRETARY OF STATE, as the man with the relationships in Russia who can restructure the strategic picture so vital to the world balance of power.
