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ANY poll testing the national popular vote in close elections is going to be off because winning or losing the popular vote means nothing constitutionally.

Only a poll of all the separate states can gauge close elections, IMHO.

National polls are still good because #1) they directionally tell you if the race is close or not 2) provide a barometer to whether or not a state poll is BS or not (eg: if HRC was up +2 nationally, no chance Trump is down by 1 in GA or tied in SC like some state polls showed) 3) Unless the race is within 2-3% nationally, the national popular vote winner will almost certainly win the electoral college.

State polls were all over the board. On the same day a couple weeks before the election for example, 6 NC polls came out within 24 hours - 2 had Trump up big (4-6%), 3 had Clinton up big (5-7%), and 1 had it tied. If you think HRC's popular vote lead is +10%, then HRC up 5-7% is likely right. If you think the race is close to tied, it's safe to throw out those 3 state polls from NC that had her up massively.