I went to the page to look:
Some of those swings are crazy (re: TX). How on earth could the execrable Willard, a fake ringer, have that much appeal in TX in those districts while Trump bled off somewhere of 1/5th from him ? It simply doesn’t make sense. I can understand some upscale Whites going squishy, but you’d think a REAL candidate would engender an increase.
I mean, here in TN, Trump declined in only 1 GOP district out of 7 (Knoxville-area 2nd) by 2%, but even Hillary dropped by 1%. TX had a Trump increase only in the 1st and 4th districts and a decline in 33 other districts, both Dem and GOP ?! Either Kos made a big boo-boo or TX is starting to go down a very dark path.
With all due respect, DJ, you obviously overestimate Trump’s popularity among conservative voters, particularly those with high incomes and a Reaganite outlook. A Republican presidential candidate doesn’t get trounced in Orange County, CA, DuPage County, IL, Gwinnett County, GA, Chester County, PA, etc., and badly underperform weak candidates such as John McCain and Mitt Romney in high-income, über-Republican suburbs in WI, MI, TX, GA, etc. if he is popular among conservatives who believe in low spending, free trade and a strong defense.
While I am sure that Trump would run much better with those suburban voters if there was a do-over election today, since his Cabinet picks and most of his statements and actions have allayed fears that he’d be Mike Huckabee on economic issues, Rand Paul on defense and Rudy Giuliani on social issues, the lack of enthusiasm (and, in many cases, outright revulsion) for Trump among high-income, suburban Reaganites was apparent since Trump first started speaking in terms of economic populism and increasing military isolationism, and, while the apprehension towards Trump did decrease somewhat after he won the nomination, it was obvious to anyone that looked at polls that this group, along with Mormons, was Trump’s biggest lagger when compared to prior Republican nominees.
Thank God that Trump’s historic overperformance among blue-collar voters in suburbs, small cities and rural areas more than made up for his underperformance among high-incone suburbanites in key states such as MI, WI, PA, OH and FL (and came close to giving him MN and NH), and he was able to ride that to victory—a victory not only for him and those that voted for him, but for conservatives that didn’t but have (or will) come to realize that he will govern as more of a conservative than his populist message made it appear. But there is no doubt in my mind that the votes reported in recently heavily GOP suburbs in TX and the like were not doctored, and that we’re going to need to recover those votes going forward if we’re to have a permanent majority.