David Nir of Daily Kos just put up CD presidential numbers for OH. Trump carried all 12 GOP-held CDs, and outperformed Romney in 13 of the 16 CDs in the state (all but the Cincinnati-based OH-01 represented by Republican Steve Chabot; where Trump got 51.2% to Romney’s 52.4%, the Columbus-based OH-03 represented by Democrat Joyce Beatty, where Trump got 28.6% to Romney’s 28.9%; and the suburban-Columbus OH-12 represented by Republican Patrick Tiberi, where Trump got 53.2% to Romney’s 54.4%.
There was some speculation that Trump may have carried the Mahoning Valley-to-Akron OH-13 represented by Democrat Tim Ryan (in fact, Nancy Pelosi scoffed at Tim Ryan’s challenge for the Minority Leader position by saying that Ryan wasn’t even able to help Hillary carry his own district), but the less Democrat parts of Mahoning and Trumbull Counties lie outside the CD and apparently the Akron precincts in the district went strongly enough for Hillary that she was able to carry the district by 51.1% to 44.6%. But Hillary’s 6.5% margin was a huge drop from Obama’s 27.5% margin in 2012, and Trump’s 9.2% outperformance of Romney was his second-best among OH CDs (Trump outperformed Romney by a whopping 14.1% in the OH-06, represented by Republican Bill Johnson (but formerly held by Democrat ex-Gov. Ted Strickland, who got trounced by Rob Portman in the Senate race both statewide and in the district) that runs along the Ohio River from Portsmouth to Poland (or thereabouts).
Here’s the presidential-vote-by-CD link once again: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
If I were Tim Ryan, I’d be very concerned that the OH GOP leg could shift the CD lines and would be out of a job. That district should be sending a populist, blue-collar Republican now. If Traficant were still alive and holding the district, this might’ve been the year he switched parties. Ryan is a hard-core leftist, the antithesis of Traficant.
OK, Daily Kos now has the Iowa presidential vote by CD up:
IA-01 (Blum-R): 48.7% Trump (up 6.2% over Romney), 45.2% Clinton
IA-02 (Loebsack-D): 49.1% Trump (up 6.4% over Romney), 45.0% Clinton
IA-03 (Young-R): 48.5% Trump (up only 1.3% over Romney; stupid Des Moines), 45.0% Clinton
IA-04 (King-R): 60.9% Trump (up 7.5% over Romney), 33.5% Clinton
We need to run a strong challenger to Loebsack in 2018.