Posted on 11/11/2016 5:26:45 PM PST by Hojczyk
Like many people around the world, I expected a comfortable Hillary Clinton victory on Tuesday. But Im not a random pundit when it comes to understanding presidential races and the electorate I managed one Obama presidential campaign and oversaw another from the White House. So of all the forecasts that got it wrong, my prediction that Mrs. Clinton was a 100 percent favorite was a glaring miss.
My confidence was not partisan spin. It was based on public data, voting history and some sense of the Clinton campaigns own models. I played with various state scenarios, and even in the most generous outcomes, could not get Donald J. Trump to 270 electoral votes.
But he ended up winning 306 electoral votes and, most important, did it by breaking into the Upper Midwest, leaving the blue Big Ten firewall in ruins.
What happened? We will know much more when all the data is in and we can see exactly who voted. But based on what we know, it was a combination of several factors that led to this stunning upset.
STRONG AND WEAK CURRENTS BEAT DATA AND ANALYTICS The models for both support (vote share) and turnout were off significantly. It appears that there really were hidden Trump voters, meaning his ceiling of support was higher than most of us believed possible based on polling and modeling survey responses. And millions of potential Clinton voters who the models suggested would vote stayed home.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Packed rallies vs meager events and they all chose to pretend it wasn’t real.
I guess it would have hurt their brains too much if they would have thought it was real so they did what liberals do, they ignored reality and pretended.
Eventually because the election actually happened reality Trumped pretending. Schlonged it really. And now they are busy pretending that it didn’t happen for the reason it did.
My confidence was not partisan spin.
Well, David, It's hard to see much of anything when you've got your arrogant head so far up your elitist ass.
What they didnt count on was Eddie01. Stealth. Would not answer the pollsters call.
The relentless pounding of Trump as Hitler, evil, sexist, you name it, by the media resulted in publicly silencing his supporters out of fear of being labeled. No surprise that they then didn’t show up in polling samples.
So effectively, because of their extreme bias, the media is responsible for shutting off being able to read the public.
Quackser Fortune was the last to successfully sell shit.
“The relentless pounding of Trump as Hitler, evil, sexist, you name it, by the media resulted in publicly silencing his supporters out of fear of being labeled.”
Not exactly.
I knew they were counting on me to be part of the strategy. So I like so many others purposely skewed they polling to get them over confident.
My Trump support was well known by friends and family
Ahem . . . let me sum it up succintly . . . You were breathing!
Those who hate America sees life from a different prism. Pretty simple.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
The Hillary-loving Liberal MSM were the Joseph Goebbels of 2016. They were hoping to affect the election using their propaganda! They didn’t get it wrong, they refused to tell the truth.
Ha, ha, I was gonna call him a poof, but you beat me to it! [I gotta get speech-to-text. Does it work when you drink?] Heh...
Plus Maryland and Rutgers. 14 U's in 11 states; Trump was 7 of the 11.
Yeppers. Same propaganda.
Same sources.
Now, did “tey” know it, and were deliberately lying?
Or were they deliberately ignorant, and deliberately NOT educating themselves?
Or were they ignorantly ignorant, and didn’t know what they were doing because of confirmation bias and “everybody I talk to knows that” insider-Washington-NYC-LA bias?
I guess he did not pick up on the fact that the American People were really Pissed-Off.
Answer: EVERYTHING!
Well, David, it's hard to see much of anything when you've got your arrogant head so far up your elitist ass.
ROTFLOL......put-down of the week, for sure. Boom.
I think many of those polls were "push polls" , where they aren't looking for truth, they are trying to use the polls to create an illusion of superiority.
Whenever you see a poll, ask in your own mind, 'who paid for it '?
Most of the polls were designed and paid for by DemoRATS to indicate that they were ahead in popularity and electoral college votes.
They were all regurgitating what other polls had said; three days out, only the L.A. Times poll indicated a Trump surge
That is how they all got caught creating news, rather than reporting the news in the polls !
"I flacked her on AF One and she lost four points.
This frickin' faked pose oughta be good for a point."
Never underestimate the power of p*ssed off people in large groups.
Or the power of prayers, either.
Must have been those D+912 polls.
"PROOF: Blacks, women, Hispanics voted for racist, sexist Trump." Title NOT accurate. It should be "Black, Hispanic, Young People (18-29), and Poor People (< $30k)"
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