I was personally fairly sure McCain was going to lose. I thought Romney might pull it off because of Gallup and Ras and because we thought their pct model of the electorate was better than all the others.
This year, if I understand correctly, almost everyone has a model similar to Obama's model, that I truly think will be hard for HRC to pull off.
Obama had a movement in 08, and McCain didn't even try to win.
I think Trump is more of a movement, that is why I think we are going to see a record turnout.