“EV means exactly nothing! I am not interested!”
Yeah, you keep saying that - it reminds me of those three “see no evil” monkeys covering their eyes, ears, and whatever....
The fact is that early voting data can be valuable in certain cases when combined with other analysis. For example, in some states we have a history of how early voting is distributed over the days of the early voting period for D, R and I.
Using those distribution curves, the early-voting-to-date can be interpolated to project what the final total ballots cast by registration would be if the curves conformed to historical patterns.
It’s only a projection, but it’s better than anything else we have, and the closer to Election Day we get, the more meaningful the projection gets, because 1) there is more known and less unknown, and 2) the actual daily ballots to date can be checked against history to see if the distribution curves are holding up - adjustments can be made.
Then, using the protected ballots for D, R and I as a baseline, ‘skews’ can be applied to reflect expected net crossover votes and expected distribution of independents to Trump or Clinton. While nobody knows what the actual skews will be, most polls show that Trump will benifit.
Some FReepers have been doing analysis similar to what is described above, and I for one find it extremely meaningful!
I’m not a fan of early voting at all, but there is information to be gleaned from it.