Posted on 11/05/2016 11:13:08 PM PDT by Helicondelta
And if there is an increase/decrease in early voting....what is that evidence of?
Does it tell you how many will vote on Election Day? No
Does it tell you who will win? No
Does it tell you who is ahead? No
Therefore, it’s worthless as an indicator anyone cares about.
All it does is take the vote that would have been cast on Election Day and shift it back in time.
Good graphic. Link?
Yes, early voting numbers do have value in predictions. You may not understand them, but that’s not our problem.
You post articles such as black and Hispanic men won’t vote for Hillary as thought that means something, but then you reject actual numbers?
I don’t know what makes you so stupid, but it really works.
You’re all out of bullshit
Why haven’t you explained it then?
You have offered nothing in the way of evidence.
Why do you believe the EV is an important indicator?
What does EV indicate?
What poll figures in ANY voter fraud? Try again, please.
Vote Trump 2016
“EV means exactly nothing! I am not interested!”
Yeah, you keep saying that - it reminds me of those three “see no evil” monkeys covering their eyes, ears, and whatever....
The fact is that early voting data can be valuable in certain cases when combined with other analysis. For example, in some states we have a history of how early voting is distributed over the days of the early voting period for D, R and I.
Using those distribution curves, the early-voting-to-date can be interpolated to project what the final total ballots cast by registration would be if the curves conformed to historical patterns.
It’s only a projection, but it’s better than anything else we have, and the closer to Election Day we get, the more meaningful the projection gets, because 1) there is more known and less unknown, and 2) the actual daily ballots to date can be checked against history to see if the distribution curves are holding up - adjustments can be made.
Then, using the protected ballots for D, R and I as a baseline, ‘skews’ can be applied to reflect expected net crossover votes and expected distribution of independents to Trump or Clinton. While nobody knows what the actual skews will be, most polls show that Trump will benifit.
Some FReepers have been doing analysis similar to what is described above, and I for one find it extremely meaningful!
I’m not a fan of early voting at all, but there is information to be gleaned from it.
If the Axiom numbers are correct and you use those with the EV raw data, then Trump has a nice lead even with more Ds voting early.
Seriously? I just told you
So tell me genius, based only on facts and your calculations, not on your opinions:
Who has voted for who so far?
Who is ahead so far?
Who will win the election?
I do not want to hear from you again unless it is to answer any one of those questions.
You’ve got my vote for most obnoxious poster.
Why do you people still believe in polls 36 years later? I guess you were not there: WHAT’S TRUE: Ronald Reagan won the 1980 general election in a landslide despite trailing as much as 8% behind Jimmy Carter in some mid-October polls.
WHAT’S FALSE: Reagan wasn’t trailing Carter in all polls, and significant events in the final weeks of the 1980 campaign helped to swing public opinion in Reagan’s favor.
Oh God...you’re a woman.
Ask you to be accountable and you resort to low down name calling.
Go home little girl before I call you what you are.
I’ve seen him try to appeal to blacks, but haven’t seen him do anything to target hispanics. I know they’re not as monolithic. But if there’s any specific issue important to hispanics or approach that appeals to them, he doesn’t seem to have found it.
Are you serious? That's been the main Trump theme since Day one. Stopping the flood of illegals and bringing jobs back to America. This is going to help Hispanics in a great way as they will not have to compete for fewer and fewer jobs with those who are here illegally.
How comes it to be that you hardly ever list the authors of the threads you post?
http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:helicondelta/index?tab=articles
I said a hispanic-specific issue. Those apply to everybody, not specifically to hispanics.
Show me a poll that says the majority of hispanics are opposed to more hispanic immigration, legal or not. That simply defies human nature. That’s like saying whites in South Africa wouldn’t be happy if more whites immigrated there. A minority group always wants their numbers to increase. Safety in numbers. Not to mention many hispanics are probably related closely to some illegals or have foreign family members they want to bring in.
And no matter how much Trump has pivoted away from deporting all illegals and banning all muslims, his original positions on those were covered far more and are what’s been baked into people’s brains. Trump still has massive support among people who want to deport them all and has massive opposition from those who want amnesty.
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