Someone on Fox said it seemed possible Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EVs. Noteworthy because it’s the first time they were taking it seriously he would win the popular vote. Them saying he could lose the EC is I think just a function of state polls lagging behind national polls.
“Someone on Fox said it seemed possible Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EVs. Noteworthy because it’s the first time they were taking it seriously he would win the popular vote. Them saying he could lose the EC is I think just a function of state polls lagging behind national polls.”
There is almost no realistic statistical probability of Trump losing the Electoral College IF he wins the popular vote.
“In truth, however, this “blue wall” doesn’t exist. The Electoral College does not give a clear advantage to either political party. Democrats have won the electoral vote in four of the past six presidential elections because they have won the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections. Indeed, one need look back only four Olympiads—to the year of Michael Phelps’s first Olympics—to find an example of a Democratic nominee losing the electoral vote despite winning the national popular vote—and by more than half a percentage point. There is no recent example of a Republican nominee suffering the same fate.
Let’s look at the four presidential elections in this century. In 2000, George W. Bush won the electoral vote by a tally of 271 to 266 (with one abstention), while losing the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.51 points. If Bush had done 0.51 points better in every state—thereby making the popular vote dead-even—he would have added New Mexico (which he lost by 0.06 points), Wisconsin (lost by 0.22 points), Iowa (lost by 0.32 points), and Oregon (lost by 0.44 points) to his column, thereby giving him 301 electoral votes to Gore’s 236........”
http://www.hudson.org/research/12802-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-270-electoral-votes