These were elections in a non-Presidential year. The turnout will be much different in 2016 as it was in 2012 and 2008.
Yes, however black turnout is down in early voting states, so it’ll be low in Hampton Roads. Hillary has practically no yard signs in the NOVA area and zero on public medians that were blanketed in Obama signs 4 and 8 years ago. I agree the turnout will be different but probably not Obama different.