Posted on 11/02/2016 11:54:23 AM PDT by Radio Free Tuscaloosa
Romney lost Virginia by 3.88%. That’s not impossible to overcome, especially since the Democratic turnout won’t be anywhere near what BHO received in 2012.
VA would be a great pick-up, one that was never expected.
We see that African-American turnout is down about 20% in other states. If that trend holds, African-Americans would make up 16% of the electorate instead of 20% in 2012. That would cover the margin of victory of Obama over Romney. It is doable.
Yes, however black turnout is down in early voting states, so it’ll be low in Hampton Roads. Hillary has practically no yard signs in the NOVA area and zero on public medians that were blanketed in Obama signs 4 and 8 years ago. I agree the turnout will be different but probably not Obama different.
This is a big one.
I think we take Florida, Ohio, and Iowa and also hold North Carolina.
Add either Virginia or Colorado to that mix and it is Hello President Trump.
The other thing that is not mentioned in the 2012 post-mortem is that the percentage of eligible white voters who cast a ballot was at a historic low. So if the percentage of white voters increase, and African-Americans decrease, the demographics change dramatically for voters.
That’s only NOVA. The rest of us are doing fine.
Obama got 1,959,532 votes in 2008 and 1,971,820 in 2012, which was bucking the trend since Obama received 3.5 million less votes in 2012 than he did in 2009.
The reality is that the Rep base is dying out and the Dems are increasing due to immigration, domestic migration due to the lure of Washington money, and higher minority birth rates. Demography is destiny.
Hillary could receive more votes than Obama in 2012. Kaine received more votes than Obama when he was reelected on the same ticket in 2012. Kaine got 2,010,067 in 2012.
Dang he looks like a clown
I lived in Virginia from 1988-2011 and consider it my home state too. I hated to see the rats narrowly win elections that we should have won due to media or third-party influence.
I’m sorry to hear about your brother-in-law. I used to live in Fairfax County so I know the area well. I’ll keep them in my prayers.
VA is going to be very hard for Trump to win. If I were him, I would devote more of my efforts to PA and MI. They are more winnable than VA.
Well, I’m hoping that NOVA isn’t as favorable to Democrats this time around but in the past democrats have always seemed to slip into victory in the state.
I’d like to think that Kaine isn’t all that popular in the state anymore and the number of military and defense personnel in the NOVA area will come out in droves.
Hopefully Trump’s outreach to Indian voters will help as well.
Obama won the big areas of black voters in Richmond, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Petersburg, and Portsmouth. Hillary won't win by as big a margins due to lower turnout. But I would not underestimate the Dem GOTV effort,
I had Va. in my 270toWin going to Trump. I think even in NoVa there is a large percentage of monster Trumnp votes. NoVa is full of tech people, some are dependent on government contracts but increasingly not. Not many GS-11s living in Arlington or Alexandria. That’s for PG county in Maryland a real liberal feces hole. Full of fat black women and their 4 bastard kids, her holding down a gubmint job.
I’d like to see Crooked Terry’s head explode.
Bill Mitchell is convinced that the Dems have thrown in the towel on Clinton and would rather be the opposition party for the next four years rather than risk endless investigations, impeachment hearings and non-stop scandals.
They’re hoping to play spoiler, win the 2018 mid-terms and try for the presidency again in 2020.
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/793925815687938048
“The concession speech will go on about 11:15, after she has been given a steadying dose of barbiturates....”
I don’t think she’ll appear in person. She will have Podesta appear with a prepared speech
Isn’t Hampton a HBCU school?
It’s been my position from nearly the time of Trump’s announcement speech on 6/16/2015, that he would win this in the biggest landslide in modern American history. That is still my position.
Clinton is history and in fact, at this point, she shouldn’t be allowed to even run for the Presidency. She’s a catastrophic dishonorable national embarrassment.
The jig is up for the D.C. corrupt.
Expect Trump to double if not triple Mitten’s 6% among AA voters.
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