This is about the minimum I have thought Trump would win by entire time 43 to 48.
assuming there is a monster vote out there the polls are missing, could be as high as 51/52 to 40/41.
I completely disagree with your assessment that the 3rd party candidates will poll 8% in this election. I don’t care how unpopular Hillary and Trump are. It is just not going to happen. It will very likely be half of that, maybe even less.