Right now, Rs have about 55k more votes than 2012 in early in person voting, down about 23k votes in mail in, and Dems are down 28k votes. Net, that’s about 60k votes more for Trump at this point. Additionally, there have been an incremental 100k indy votes, 80% white, 48.3% male. I’m guessing Trump nets out at least 10k votes off these.
Yep spot on.
I agree, I think Indies are breaking to trump 2-to-1, based on comments from Michael Bitzer when he looked at who of the Indies voted in the 2016 primaries, and in what party primary. So Indies breaking for Trump by 10% margin is fairly conservative.