Yup, I’m guessing D+0 to D+3 given black vote is massively down everywhere we have early voting data (eg: ~30% in NC)
Yes 08/12 models are laughable as a baseline for 16. At Best Dems will get the self identified difference which is about 28R to 32D.
The only way D’s go higher than that is if the Monster vote shows up and it’s huge D leaning in which case the extra D will be largely going for Trump and it won’t be helpful to Hillary in the least.