I have seen the Dem NoVA GOTV operation up close and personal. There is no way the Dem vote will be depressed there. Early voting allows them to marshal the vote and even commit voter fraud. The Dems are obsessive, vicious, well-funded, and organized in NoVA.
In 2012 we were able to increase the GOP vote by almost 100,000 compared to 2008. It was a massive GOTV effort. The Dems still won the state by 150,000 and increased their number by 25,000. Non-Hispanic whites, the power base of the GOP, are dying off. The Dems are increasing their numbers thru immigration and minority birthrates. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under are minorities as defined by the USG. Each cohort that turns 18 annually is more minority and more Dem.
One third of the vote is located in NoVA. In 2012 Obama amassed a margin of 224,000 votes in just Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria (city), Prince William, and Loudoun counties. Obama won by 149,000 statewide. Then you toss in predominantly black cities like Hampton (28,000 margin for Obama), Newport News (24,000 for Obama), Norfolk (40,000 for Obama), and Richmond (55,000 for Obama). These are huge numbers to overcome.
The only hope is a depressed black vote (they make up 20% of the population) or Trump gets a surprising number of black votes. Blacks don’t like the Clintons. And a much larger turnout from the rural areas.
You explain how in VA too demographics are destiny.