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Here’s the truth about PA...

Trump should win it handily... and this isn’t emotion, this is logic.

In each of the last 3 cycles, Republicans have put ~2.7 M votes int he box in PA.... and that’s with an unpopular war president in 2004, and 2 dogs, McCain 2008 and Romney 2012. So R’s can reliably put ~2.7 M in the box with anyone on the ticket in PA.

The last 3 cycles on the D side have been ~3M for Kerry, 3.3M for Obama in 08 and ~3M for Obama in 12.

Polling in the state has shown, when regions breakdown is offered in them, that Hillary is massively underperforming Obama 12, especially outside the Philly region. In 2012, Obama got 120,000 of his 300,000 lead in places like Pittsburgh, Erie, and Harrisburg... and guess what? Hillary is either losing, or grossly behind Obama 12 numbers in these areas in fact.. the only one of these areas she is ahead of Trump is Pittsburgh, but the margin is so small, she’s only likely to see a 20,000 vote win there, vs the 90,000 vote win Obama got there... When you add in she is losing Erie by 9 points, Trump is likely to win Erie by 10,000... and the same is True for the Harrisburg area. When all is said and done... Hillary will likely not see more than MAYBE 10,000 votes, if that, go her way outside of Philly.

Now, Trump has more enthusiasm and support than any D I have seen in 30 years of living in PA, including Bush I who actually won the state. More than 165,000 people have switched affiliation from D to R just so they can vote for Trump.

So, working backwards, with these two tidbits, Hillary assuming the 165k are all going to show up to vote... which is a fair assumption... You take 2.7M you add 1.65 and then take away 100k from 2012... you have Trump at a minimal base of 2.87 and Hillary at 2.9. That’s if you assume all other things are equal....

They are not. Trump is going to bring in far more voters, Trumpocrats are real, and they will be showing up in numbers in PA... Trump should EASILY be able to put 3M + into the box on eleciton day. For Hillary to do this, she is going to HAVE to outperform in Philly Obama in 2012... not to 2008 numbers, but well above 2012.. and there just isn’t the support or enthusiasm for her to do it. She literally must get more than 100,000 more votes out of Philly that Obama did, just to stay even... and with the enthusiasm and wide support Trump has, I really don’t think “simply staying even with O 2012” will be enough.

Hillary is going to underperform O across PA.. Including Philly.. and meanwhile Trump is going to overperform anything any R here has ever done... easily topping 3M total votes.

The numbers just aren’t here for her, I don’t see any math that she is capable of putting 3M votes in the box.. honestly I think she’ll be lucky if she’s at 2.6ish at the end of the night.

Time will tell, but I firmly believe PA will go Trump, and it will not be the only Rust Belt surprise that night either.... Time will tell... but for Hillary to win PA... she’s going to have to have a night closer to Obama 2008 to pull it off, and she just doesn’t have the support or enthusiasm here to get anything close to that.