A very big if.....
Even if the 28% increase in UNAFFILIATED are Trump voters, and the others split even, that’s nearly 600K voters going to Trump. So from above, Trump and Hillary would be 50-50 going into election day. Romney was 5 points down after early voting, and still beat Obama.
If North Carolina doesn’t go for Trump, I blame the NCGOP because they really avoided getting behind Trump even after he won the nomination. They acted like they were going to do the ground game (I am talking the folks in charge,not the workers) but told people not to talk about Trump in the surveys early on, just ask questions about the ticket. They called me and wanted money and I told them I am not seeing any significant support for Trump on their part. Now they are trying to get behind him, but it is way too little too late. They have blamed the Trump campaign for not having a ground game like Romney did. I believe the Trump supporters (American citizens) are appreciative of a campaign that is not about corporate donors. I have never seen anything like the criticism of this candidate when it is mostly he, his family and his own money which are doing the heavy lifting. Last Saturday, South Carolina Republican women came into Charlotte to go knock on doors for Trump because they knew how apathetic Charlotte Republicans were in 2012 when they also came and knocked. I couldn’t believe these women gave up their Saturday and Sunday to come help our lazy Republicans in Charlotte win the election. A lot of these N.C. Republicans still think that they should focus on the down ballot rather than put their efforts into Trump winning the presidency. It is really pitiful. It is about the same 5-10 people putting forth effort in Charlotte. Today at early voting, there were huge numbers of Democrats voting in Charlotte. I am furious at the way this has been handled in North Carolina.