Early Vote Analysis for Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida - 10/25/2016

10/25/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

IOWA: REP are running slightly ahead of 2012 for early voting requests. DEM are running more than 30,000 behind 2012 voting requests. Source: https://twitter.com/ElectProject (10/24 Iowa graph)

Iowa Status: Trending TRUMP

OHIO: Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) is the Democratic stronghold. 2 weeks before the 2012 election, DEMs had requested 126,358 ballots. REPs had requested 49,762 ballots. Today, DEMs have requested 79,770 ballots. REPs have requested 51,141 ballots. REP requests are UP 1,379. DEM requests are DOWN 46,588 (DOWN 37%!). Source: http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/absentee-voter-labels.aspx (2012 county report vs 2016 county report).

Ohio Status: Trending TRUMP

NORTH CAROLINA: DEM returns (mail and in-person) off 2012 levels by 7.6%. REP down 7.9%. So roughly equal. Both parties slightly down from 2012 numbers. But in 2012, Romney won the state by 50.3% to 48.3%. With no increase in the vote for DEMs, on target for same result as in 2012.

North Carolina Status: Trending TRUMP

FLORIDA: In, 2012, with the first 298,637 in-person votes cast (over several days), there were DEM - 145,470, REP - 105,948, OTHER - 47,219. For 2016, after 1st day of in-person voting today with 291,449 cast: DEM - 133,041, REP - 109,034, OTHER - 49,374. DEMs are DOWN, REP are UP for in-person voting. 2012 Source: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-16m-floridians-having-voted-dems-cut-gop-absentee-vote-lead-in-half-in-1st-early-vote-day.html

2016 Source: https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Florida Status: Trending TRUMP

[SpeedyInTexas]

This election is winnable by Trump.

With, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and the other solid REP states, Trump is around 260 electoral votes. 10 more to win.

Best candidates for 10 more votes: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, Colorado+Nevada, Colorado+New Hampshire, Nevada+New Hampshire.

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[Ravi]

Thank you. Great information.

[Irish Eyes]

Thanks for good news.

[spokeshave]

OMG...the Trump Train is acceleration out of the plateau.....heading up to the shining city at the top of the mountain

....meanwhile the Cankles Caboose has slipped back and is descending into the fjord that it was always pining for.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Forgot the North Carolina source: https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/790875672994455552

[gubamyster]

Thanks for the info. Great news. I am hoping a LOT of those Dem ballots returned are Trump votes.

[sargon]

This election is winnable by Trump.

I think that Hillary +12 poll is garbage.

These state polls (OH, NC, NV, IA, FL) that are rolling in, combined with the anecdotal and enthusiasm information, are starting to make me become optimistic.

HamiltonJay on another thread (the Ohio poll) also posted some extensive, informative, and encouraging analysis regarding Pennsylvania.

I'm starting to think this is going to happen.

Maybe all of this sunshine-blowing agitprop is Hillary's last ditch effort to convince the People of her inevitability, and maybe it's not going to work.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

[Toespi]

Can someone tell me why, when media is going over the polling numbers, They ALWAYS say, Tump needs to hold Ohio, Trump needs to take Florida, etc. why do they say, Clinton needs to blah, blah, blah. Is there something I am missing? Does Hillary have to do anything?

[goldstategop]

I was away from FR the past day.

I boycotted this forum before in 2004 when defeatism ran rampant on many threads with many convinced Kerry had it all but won.

We know the outcome.

[goldstategop]

No, its a coronation.

Hillary is our next Queen! She’s not “elected”. Not in the eyes of the media anyway.

[ought-six]

“Best candidates for 10 more votes: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, Colorado+Nevada, Colorado+New Hampshire, Nevada+New Hampshire.”

Well, that there is the rub. Nevada won’t get him over the top, and Nevada is the most likely pick up for Trump. If he can somehow manage to get PA, then he is home free. That is a big IF (do NOT underestimate the voter fraud of Philadelphia and, to a lesser extent, Pittsburgh).

[gaijin]

The best part:

Win or lose maybe HALF of the MSM viewership is going bye-bye.

[goldstategop]

I never watch them.

Fake but accurate news. Who needs it?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Personally, I think PA is the best candidate.

[Cobra64]

Enthusiasm is admired. However, the wet blanket involves rampant voter fraud. Trump would win this election on a legitimate basis, however, reality is there is corruption involved. The final tallies will be interesting.

[ought-six]

“Personally, I think PA is the best candidate.”

You very well could be right.

[Right-wing Librarian]

I’m sorry for my stupid question, but can you tell me:
When Rep/Dem/Other numbers are reported, is this count by registration or is it their actual vote? Thanks.

[Walrus]

My new motto: Give The Establishment the finger -— vote Trump!

[Eccl 10:2]

I have Trump at 265 solid:

Romney’s 206 PLUS

FL 29
OH 18
IA 6
NV 6

That’s 265

Any number of states can win it for him.

And don’t forget the combo of ME-2 (1) plus NH (4).