You’re just saying that we don’t know because we don’t yet know. Fine.
In that case, no probability statement should ever be made. No polls taken. No data based assumptions.
The whole point here is that past performance is a good indication of what will again come about.
DO you think that might bear on whether they vote for Trump or not?
Past performance is out the window on this election because the race is totally different. You have the Republican party's candidate being opposed by the Republican Party Elite. (I hope Paul Ryan dies of the Drizzling Shits) The so-called "Monster Vote" might skew the whole thing or the Trump version of Bimbo Eruptions might totally destroy the Republican women's vote. And I will surmise that the fraud associated with Absentee ballots will hit all-time highs this election ESPECIALLY IN SWING STATES,
So yeah like I said "grain of salt" time.