Folks, everyone has to remember three things:
1. Hillary always polls better on the weekends. It happens every weekend, she pulls slightly ahead or even, then Trump moves back during the week.
2. This election just feels like the Brexit vote. Remember, every poll had the remain well ahead, some as much as 10 points. We know how that turned out.
3. Pollsters are all using 2008 and 2012 turnout models for their polls. So far in the early voting, I am not seeing that type of Democrat coalition turning out. For example, in North Carolina, African-American turnout is down substantially from 2012. If the electorate does not look like 2008 and 2012 (which it most likely will not), you can toss almost every poll out the window. Every poll is assuming a D+6 or higher turnout model. If the electorate is more Republican (or independent heavy pro-Trump), the outcome will be very different.