Posted on 10/22/2016 11:35:48 PM PDT by WilliamIII
If you ask most pundits – and indeed, most voters – who’s likely to win the presidential election on November 8th, the answer, overwhelmingly, would be Hillary Clinton. Some odds-makers, including noted statistician Nate Silver, place her chances of victory at somewhere near 90%.
And, of course, a spate of new national polls, most of them sponsored by media companies that unabashedly support Clinton, suggests that the former First Lady enjoys a large and widening lead over Donald Trump.
The race is over, many analysts say.
But not all pollsters agree. In fact, three of the most recent national surveys still show the 2016 contest as a statistical dead heat (or Trump slightly leading). And when non-conforming polls come in threes, they’re not so easy to dismiss as “outliers.” They even beg the question as to whether any of the polls can be trusted to predict the election.
If history is any guide, they can – and these outlier polls may be closer to the truth than many people realize.
For one thing, the firms sponsoring two of the polls have a sterling record. One is IBD/TIPP, which is considered by experts like Silver to be the nation’s single most reliable pollster. Not only did the firm accurately predict the outcome of the last four presidential elections, it did so with uncanny accuracy. Silver found that it came closest to predicting the 2012 election, not just Romney’s victory, but the actual point spread.
And it’s not just IBD/TIPP. The second polling group that finds the current race a dead heat has also successfully predicted past elections. Its sponsor is the LA Times/USC consortium (hereafter LAUSC), a partnership between the nation’s third ;largest newspaper and two prestigious research centers at a prestigious university
(Excerpt) Read more at natmonitor.com ...
The reliable poll will be around in November.
It all depends on home much fraud Georgie Soros’ Nazis are able to pull off.
Wow, Romney won, who knew?
A *surprise* victory?
Have they been living under a rock?
Silver found that it came closest to predicting the 2012 election, not just Romney’s victory, but the actual point spread.
Wow, Romney won, who knew?
I’m hopin’ like hell that was a misprint or I cant trust a thing the article says!
predicting the 2012 election, not just Romney’s victory,
****
Huh?
Is Romney President?
Trexit’s coming...
USexit?
Amerixt?
I like U-sex-it
Nate Silver himself listed the IBD poll as the most accurate in 2012 election, but the media isn’t covering IBD’s findings this week - b/c they show Trump ahead
Typo
If fraud is allowed for dhimmytards clinton-obama-media THEN TRUMP SUPPORTERS MUST FRAUD TOO....
Or this should go before justice courts !
it is absolutely unbelievable to me election between two such people could be in any way so close. What the hell has happened to this country? How could any sizable portion of our population for someone who clearly and demonstrably corrupt ? More than just simple corruption , complete pernicious chronic Ultra corruption.... What does it say about a people that are so willfully blind it to the completely obvious? it’s like morality and right and wrong no longer matter to a huge proportion of our population. Frankly I am aghast . I do not even want to share space or the air I breathe with these people. They belong on another planet. But not this one. And certainly not in this country. To hell with them all. They need to wake the hell up....
He might have meant that Romney won the Nomination ..??
Understood
I pray daily that the Her Crookedness is defeated. My God, do not forsake us!
No “could” about it. Trump is a d*mned genius. I guarantee that he has about a dozen mathematicians and MBA’s figuring out how to target the voters he needs.
Oh there'll be voter fraud, that's been planned for forever and paid for, but just how much they'll get away with, is anyone's guess.
OTOH, there is absolutely NO, nada, ziltch, bupkis, zero enthusiasm for Hillary.
Trump has locked in many black, Hispanic, Chinese, NEVER VOTED/HAVEN'T VOTED IN DECADES, disaffected Dems, Indies, union members, GOP voters...TRUMP'S ARMY !
Absolutely NONE of the pundits, talking heads, and pollsters have a damned clue !
Felons being allowed to vote, illegal aliens voting, two generations of absolutely MORONS, dumbed down at every level of our education system, the dopers, the insane, and those making money by being liberals, and hard core Commies and Socialist will vote for Hillary. *shrugs* :-(
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