Never remember such large movements in such a short time.
Romney was looking pretty good in several polls right up to the election in 2012, then Obama clobbered him.
At this point I’m praying for a good result on November 8th, and remain guardedly optimistic.
Rasmussen went from +2 Trump to +7 Clinton back to +3 Trump in about a week so who knows.
I don’t find it suspicious on its face... and here’s why:
The question is, what is causing the movement.
If the movement is being caused because more or less people are voicing their preference verses claiming I am not going to tell you, then yes, this sort of movement would be normal.. large swings as folks who have a preference, but are just angry, or tired or mad, decide to just say Eff you I don’t want to talk about it right now... This would cause some major swings to show up depending on the news of the day.. but the reality is, you aren’t seeing large amount of folks really change their preference, they are just willing or unwilling to admit or talk to them.
This is what I expect.. I don’t thing Trump majorly lost 5 or 6 points worth of support following the boreish comments, but I do think folks who were supporting him, took an I don’t want to talk about it approach for a while.. ...
Now if it its I am getting 100% responding every single poll and its swinging 6 or 8 points over a week, then you only get that, when folks switch sides, and I really don’t think that’s happening at all.
The polls showing Hillary up near or more than 10 points are laughable on its face... just like polls showing Trump underperforming Mondale are equally laughable.
As I have said for a long long time... This election has only 3 possible outcomes... Trump absolutely blows it out of the water and wins in a major landslide.. which he was clearly on track for before the bus video.... (and in spite of the polls may still be very much on track for).
Or it was going to be a squeaker election that could go either way.
I personally believe Trump still has very strong and far more support than the trolls have been showing.. most of (not all, but most of) the polls showing Hillary up big have some major obvious sampling problems... most have been relying on vast oversampling of women... others huge oversampling of Dems... But if you noticed, all of them all of them always show an 10+ point enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor, and that’s because they can’t manipulate that out of the poll.. even if you only interview 10 people who say they are going to vote for Trump vs 100 who say they will vote for Hillary... Trump supporters will always show more enthusiasm that Hillary supporters.. you can’t manipulate that out of the poll.
I think Trump did very well in last nights debate, even moreso than the previous debates, he showed himself as reasonable, calm, and measured... I think the temperment argument has been removed... those who were still holding out support out of fear of Trump being too wild or angry or etc.. I think are more than satisfied at this point.
I would expect polling to continue in his direction, short of some other crazy event between now and the election.
Hillary did not avail herself well at all last night, she didn’t fall apart, and Trump did not knock her out, but she really offered nothing... SHe couldn’t and didn’t even directly refute or deny some of the most damning allegations against her... Pay for Play and Hiring thugs to beat up people at Trump rallies.. she tried to pivot when responding to them, but never once flatly denied either allegation. She fell back on canned talking points again and again, and offered no real reason to vote for her.
While the debate really didn’t have any fireworks, she was beaten not only on points, but in the fact that Trump came across very calm, thoughtful and reasonable.
Yes the press spin is going to be about whatever they can make it in her favor... but the folks who watched, and were holding out Trump support but wanting to vote for him will be fine doing so. HOnestly, it was probably his best debate performance from that measure.
The thing about the USC poll in particular is it is a good baseline, because it is the same folks day in and day out, it gives you a good baseline... instead of just random polling by whoever whenever... by that baseline its obvious that the race tightened after the comments.. but was that tightening, folks moving their vote, or dropping out of responding in disgust/anger/etc.?
My suspicion is that the internals will show it was the latter, and as they start responding again to the poll as it dies down, Trump’s lead will reassert itself.