Posted on 10/20/2016 12:10:21 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
|
|
10/20 |
10/19 |
Change |
|
Trump |
44.4 |
44.1 |
+ . 3 |
|
Clinton |
43.8 |
43.9 |
- . 1 |
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
One bad day fell off. There should be another.
what does this mean?....national polls?....how about polls about electoral college?
Trump will be our next President.
The debates are now history and Trump has more or less led in online tracking polls since September.
He will get the most votes in the election next month.
The gurus over at the Bowl Championship Series do stuff like this in their spare time.
Like governing, it requires complicated calculations that are just too difficult for us plebs to understand.
Specific numbers don’t matter as much as the trend line.
Trump has dominated it for the past few months and even dirty tricks perpetrated by the GOP establishment and Democrats failed to drive him out of the race.
People are just disgusted with the status quo and are ready for change. Trump is the beneficiary of the mood.
Too many unknowns. I am curious how the undecideds and most of those claiming to back 3rd party candidates will break.
Undecideds who remain undecided will stay home. They would have gone to Hillary months ago.
Third party vote - most of them will break for Trump rather than throw away votes on candidates who can’t win.
Hillary will get roughly 40% of the vote - maybe less than her husband did on his first White House run in 1992.
Add it all up, the establishment is still determined to block what is coming and will fall short.
The impact of Trump’s debate victory will not be seen in the polls until Thursday or Friday and by next week, even Nate Silver will have to concede that Trump’s chances of winning are 60-70% and not his current 12-13%.
Same Silver who decreed Larry Hogan had only a 6% chance in 2014 to become Maryland Governor?
Yup - that same Silver. Don’t be discouraged by rigged statistics.
Go and vote!
Trump has the potential to really capitalize on the independent/undecided voters. If Hillary does max out at 45% and the 3rd party candidates at 3.5% (cumulative - my guess), that leaves 51.5% for Trump. That would do it, but I think the Electoral college will be closer than I would like (please Trump, somehow get at least 300 EVs).
45% is way too high. Hillary is nowhere near as popular as her husband. She is a nasty woman.
People can’t stand her and for that reason alone, she’ll get fewer votes than a D normally gets when they lose.
Trump should win with around 53-54% of the vote and close to 300 EV.
It won’t be a landslide but it will be an impressive win nonetheless. MSM doesn’t think it will happen.
But then they live in an alternate universe no one else lives in and they can’t imagine in their tight elite circle - any one else voting for any one but Hillary.
That’s how they think.
I appreciate your optimism.
The propaganda drumbeat is really getting to me, try as I might to ignore it!
In the primaries, 15,805,136 persons voted for Clinton and 12,029,699 voted for Sanders. I think Sanders and his supporters, so many of whom were first-time voters, ought to have been allowed to wield a degree of influence on the party’s platform commensurate with their numbers. But that didn’t happen.
Sanders voters were largely disenfranchised by a process that was tipped in Clinton’s favor, because virtually all of the “super delegates” to the convention were pledged to Clinton in advance, and DNC officials were found to have colluded with the Clinton Campaign in a get-out-the-vote-for-Hillary effort.
Sanders ran a clean, grassroots campaign that inspired younger, Progressive-minded voters.
Thanks to Sanders, the total number of people who voted in the Democratic primaries was nearly equal to the combined total for the top four Republican candidates: 27,834,835 Democrats vs. 28,284,625 Republicans.
Nearly as many people voted for Sanders as voted for Donald Trump. The outcome of the General Election could well hinge on what Sanders voters decide to do.
Personally, I know of more than three dozen disappointed and disillusioned Bernie voters who are now telling me they either have voted, or intend to vote, for Trump rather than Clinton in the general election. We shall see.
I think you’re probably right, and I seem to remember from some of your other posts that you are objective and a pragmatist. I personally think it speaks volumes that Trump has withstood the onslaught of attacks from the media and his support has remained stable.
Trump will get a lot of Brexit type voters, meaning, folks who usually don’t get polled because they do not normally vote. They aren’t on the rolls according to Nigel Farage who was on Fox Business coverage afterwards with Cavuto.
1980 Poll Numbers
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual Result
51% 41% 7%
Difference between actual result and final poll
+4% -3% -1%
When the polls calculate likely voters, I think they often count people who have voted in the last few elections. So even if they poll those people, they may be left out of the likely voter tallies.
Figuring out likely voters vs. registered voters is a secret formula in every poll. If a poll is wrong, it’s because they miscalculated that eventual turnout.
Good.
Pray this continues.
I believe Trump wins with around 310 to 330 EVs. I know a good many people thought Trump left too much material unused, but I think his whole premise last night was to look “presidential”. Not that I agree with that strategy because I thought he should of just hammered her, but I think that’s what he was doing.
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