Trump is not Romney. His supporters are far more energized.
And the polls that had Romney behind were generally in the range of D+4. And we all thought it would be closer to E to D+2 (that was the reskew deal).
The polls at RCP range are averaging around D+7-8. Obama in 2008 got a D+7 turnout on a change election. Not happening with Hillary in 2016. I think it will be a D+2 or so and Trump wins.
Well said, the turnout models are likely wrong. Also, I think a LOT of dems will vote for Trump. Reagan was way behind at this point also in 1980. The voters are going to throw another “tantrum” and throw the bums out!