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To: Genoa

The article says they will release a post-debate poll “in the coming days.”


7 posted on 10/10/2016 9:04:53 AM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Why work for a living when you can vote for a living?)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

iow, dhyb


12 posted on 10/10/2016 9:07:07 AM PDT by Genoa (Luke 12:2)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

The interesting thing is they have Hillary winning by 11%, when Obama at his best in 2008, won by 7.2 %.

Now think back to 2008: the economy was in shambles, the War with Iraq was very unpopular, He was perceived as a hopeful post racial president or so portrayed to whites and an Icon to Blacks.

if we go back to 2012, Obama won it by 3.9%. Hmmm... does anyone think Hillary is more popular than Obama in 2012 or in 2008? Can she get the 66% turn out in Blacks that Obama got in 2012, when the national turn out rate was ~53 %. It is very unlikely she could get , even assuming the rest of the electorate votes in the same proportions as 2012, a spread of more than 3 % above trump.

Something is bogus in that poll, as are a lot of the polls showing Hillary ahead by 7 or more points. 1 to 3 points would be possible, above that is simply not creditable. Unlike other elections where the polls seem to start to converge as the race goes along, in this election they are heading in opposite directions.

My conclusion is polls like this are being released to keep the 2 to 4 percent Trump up polls from affecting poll aggregate sites that average polls (like RCP). I note as trump climbed in certain polls, these other polls deviate in the exact opposite direction, so that he RCP and 538 average still always show Hillary up by 2 to 3 points.


47 posted on 10/10/2016 9:31:10 AM PDT by Frederick303
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