Looks like wind field is relatively weak on the west side.
Theoretically....null heating...(the effect of solar radiation at 7 am) is driving the bands now impacting the shoreline. Away from land, a blossom of heavier convection will develop during peak heating in the mid (not inner or outer) bands in the afternoon,and when that is ingested into the inner core, look out!
The skull face is a good example, and Freeport took the brunt of that last night.
Up against shoreline, like now, the next cycle of development will necessarily occur up in the northeast quadrant, and affect areas further up the coast tonight.
Turns into a delicate balance...Dev area further north, theoretically cooler, but exact placement of Gulf Stream has major impact.
Frankly...the models have gotten so good at the 24 and 48 hour ranges that this type discussion, outside of cause and effect understanding, is just speculative on my part. Theory is great, but empirical results trump all. With the vast body of info processed by the new supercomps, us peons ride in the back seat now.
When I ran an airline’s datacenter,1997 thru 2002, our primary processing machines were a K Class HPUX server and a Sun USpark w 6 cores. The HP was fridge sized, with a one terabyte mirrored array and six gigs of ram, serving 7000 users worldwide. The Sparc was effectively AI, predicting...all...to feed pricing to the Reservations Floor. (Two calls,to two Res Agents seated side by side,for side by side seats on the same flight, five seconds apart, could result in 100% price swings for those seats. With fuel variable and FAA mandating hi tech safety for already expensive airframes,that AI paid all our paychecks...till it didn’t any more and ATA became Jetblue.)
My mid-class laptops now, individually, blow the doors off all that ancient “big iron.”
Out to 48 hours, the models get it right until areas of low res analysis change enough to alter high res, core interest location forecasts.
If (what’s her name), out SE...gets into this situation..heads up. Theory,check. Massive processing power,check. Coding, check. For one hurricane. Body of historical data with which to verify interaction between two hurricanes?
Nope.
Interesting times.