Chances are it will track a little more to the west. When hurricanes interact with land, friction reduces the wind speed on the landward side. This creates an effect of pulling the storm closer to the coast. Seen it many times. Good news is he main hammer of this storm is in the east side. Doesn’t mean there won’t be destruction, but the worst that this storm has to offer is on the east side which should remain over water. Recon data, specifically the SFMR wind data, shows the west side is only cat 1 strength with cat 2 gusts. Thats good news. Surge will be bad over a large area. Severe wind damage will be confined to the immediate coast and first teir counties. Fresh water flooding will be sporadic. He total impacts will cover a large area just because of the track.
A ton of valuable real estate in those counties.
Fresh water flooding will be sporadic.
Check the GFS rainfall map in post 319 and get back to me.
For areas north of West palm to jaxville what would you say the surge will be?