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Seems the bad effects went further left of the forecast track than expected for North Carolina and Virginia. Which is why authorities call for evacuations in the cone - and even further outside the cone.

Matthew was potentially a pretty equivalent system in overall intensity to Donna - it was below 940 mb in the northern Bahamas whereas Donna was 930 at landfall in Florida. Had Matthew tracked to the left side of the cone instead of the right, things would have been far worse. Add in a timely eyewall replacement and a timely wobble to the right, and we got lucky. Sane people don't count on luck to avoid getting drowned by hurricanes, and only pinheads thump their chests when their guesswork ends up being the actual because of such luck. The threat of serious flooding in Carolina was downplayed by some, and it came to pass and is still getting worse as rivers drain towards the coast.