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Hurricane Matthew
NOAA/NHC ^ | 1 October 2016 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse

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To: NautiNurse

My guess is that it will track similarly. There is a slow moving Low system entering the Midwest


161 posted on 10/03/2016 8:43:45 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to irritate someone, point out something obvious they are trying hard to ignore.)
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To: tutstar

I hear you. I grew up in NJ and every 10 years or so a hurricane or destructive noreaster would come through. So now I’m in OH and only have to deal with tornados and derechos. But I want to live on the beach in NC someday. Another hurricane magnet...


162 posted on 10/03/2016 8:45:51 AM PDT by chimera
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To: All

Looks like us her in Palm Beach county are going to get the end of the whip...


163 posted on 10/03/2016 9:13:18 AM PDT by Fawn ("My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge" Hosea 4:6)
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To: DocRock

“The 2004 season had numerous unusual occurrences. With six hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 intensity, 2004 also had the most major hurricanes since 1964, a record which would be surpassed in 2005.[22] Florida was severely impacted by four hurricanes during the season – Hurricane Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. This was the first time four tropical cyclones produced hurricane-force winds in one state during a single season since four hurricanes made landfall in Texas in 1886”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season

_____________________

I’ve had an irrational hatred of Hurricane Season since 2004... 2005 didn’t help with that... seems it’s the price we pay for living in Florida.


164 posted on 10/03/2016 9:43:02 AM PDT by GOPJ (Refugees from Syria: 5,435 Muslims; 28 Christians/From Iraq: 11,086 Muslims; 433 Christians-Ibrahim)
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To: SE Mom
Here is Joe Bastardi's forecast this morning - his is left (west) of the NHC's official track, which is biased to the (flawed) GFS model.

This is a little hard to read, but it looks like Joe thinks the eye will stay about 120-150 miles off-shore until Saturday/Sunday... and then all bets are off from there... as a Cat 4 storm sits in the Gulf Stream and beats the snot out of the Carolina barrier islands.

165 posted on 10/03/2016 10:07:50 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: alancarp
...and now Bastardi's computer whiz Dr. Ryan Maue has posted this to twitter, which not only jives with the Bastardi forecast, but brings the 'Hazel Scenario' firmly into play for maybe 30-40% of these ensemble runs.


166 posted on 10/03/2016 10:17:46 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: alancarp

Maue further tweeted this:

“Westward shift of GEFS ensembles toward Florida is concerning. Waiting on ECMWF guidance at 2 PM for comparision.”


167 posted on 10/03/2016 10:20:11 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: alancarp

2PM GFS has eye cruising a few miles inland up coast of North Carolina!


168 posted on 10/03/2016 11:11:43 AM PDT by steve86 (Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
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To: steve86
Yeah, all of the models are now trending West.

Jim Cantore tweet: Blob seems to be disappearing, but #Matthew a Very Dangerous Cat 4 crawling northward. Global models shifting west w/potential USA landfall.

169 posted on 10/03/2016 11:27:52 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: alancarp

Oh sh............


170 posted on 10/03/2016 11:30:18 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: alancarp
Yeah, all of the models are now trending West.

Yikes--huge shift in the models. Heck--one of them boldly crosses the FL peninsula to Tampa Bay. The official NHC forecast track should be a big wake up call at 5PM.

171 posted on 10/03/2016 12:08:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse (ILLary uses BleachBit to scrub her medical history away...)
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To: alancarp

The people in soviet Red Hampshire have been hoping for some relief from the extreme drought...their wish may come true. All at once.


172 posted on 10/03/2016 12:12:57 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
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To: alancarp

Great map, thanks. I like Bastardi and his approach. My gut, based on no knowledge has suggested the same. But I’ve been wrong before..

Being in east Central Florida makes me interested in this!


173 posted on 10/03/2016 12:39:50 PM PDT by SE Mom
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To: alancarp
Yeah, all of the models are now trending West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96B_Q6K7GUY

174 posted on 10/03/2016 1:20:09 PM PDT by Fawn ("My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge" Hosea 4:6)
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To: alancarp

bkmk


175 posted on 10/03/2016 2:29:18 PM PDT by novemberslady
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To: chimera

I couldn’t handle the cold. I’d be like the Tin Man haha. If I could pick a beach I’d live on Fripp Island SC.


176 posted on 10/03/2016 2:41:34 PM PDT by tutstar
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Forecast models and NHC official track shift westward.
Florida peninsula is solidly in the cone of uncertainty

140 MI S OF Tiburon Haiti
225 MI SW OF Port Au Prince Haiti
Max sustained winds...140 mph
Moving N at 7 mph
940 Mb


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

177 posted on 10/03/2016 3:02:07 PM PDT by NautiNurse (ILLary uses BleachBit to scrub her medical history away...)
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To: All
Gov. Scott Declares State Of Emergency As Hurricane Matthew Moves Over Caribbean.

floridadisaster.org

178 posted on 10/03/2016 3:10:26 PM PDT by NautiNurse (ILLary uses BleachBit to scrub her medical history away...)
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To: NautiNurse

This has the POTENTIAL to be the most destructive and most costly hurricane in history..

The path it COULD take would have the front eyewall moving up NNW the entire east coast of FL with the storm only slowly weakening since it would remain half offshore..then into SC and NC and up north

THIS STORM MAY BE A FACTOR IN THE ELECTION SINCE MANY AREAS WILL NOT FULLY RECOVER IN TIME INCLUDING POWER ... I can foresee many voters(somehow only democratic) voters becoming disenfranchised


179 posted on 10/03/2016 3:14:38 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

18z GFS more west then 12z


180 posted on 10/03/2016 3:16:27 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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