Intentional actions, poor judgment and incompetence are not mutually exclusive, and they are all present in Obama.
And, NO, I do not think for one second that he was/is able to foresee precise outcomes of his intentional actions. In most cases, other than the Iran nuke deal, his intentions and actions in the ME have blown up in his and Hillary's faces.
They failed to get the results they wanted in most every case. He did not foresee the Syrian refugee situation, though he is using it to bring more Third World Muslim refugees into the US. He wanted to help remove Assad from power and install a more fundamentalist regime. He failed and managed to help draw Russian forces into the area.
I repeat this as my final word:
Intentional actions, poor judgment and incompetence are not mutually exclusive, and they are all present in Obama.
Obama is not some evil genius who can foresee the outcome of every situation any more than someone can foresee which bowling pins will fall as each bowler releases his ball down the lane.
Marchon is 100% correct and provides ample evidence.
US MENA actions are overwhelming consistent and remain so to this minute.
CIA Operation Arab Spring continues, most notably for now, in Syria.