I vote for debate possibility #2: She looks confused, flustered, angry.
But the moderators will prevent Trump from taking too much advantage of that.
However, give me good enough odds (maybe 5 to 1) and I’ll go with #1: She backs out. The excuse would either be the “pneumonia” thing, or Hillary will just say that she refuses to debate a hater and a racist.
Trump cannot screw up in debate #1. He has to clearly win, and I don't mean with conservatives.