These numbers are 538’s polls-plus forecast. Polls-only is slightly worse but getting better every day.
See my post.
Trump is within striking distance of a win. Every one will write him off for dead.
Elections have a funny way of overcoming people’s biases.
Nothing like a reality check from the raw vote.
These numbers are 538s polls-plus forecast. Polls-only is slightly worse but getting better every day.
Silver has his opinions, but primarily what he does is produce models that analyze polls in a very sophisticated manner. The models are somewhat constrained by the very fact that they use polls, but if one wants to keep up with the polls at all, I don’t know of a better site than 538.