Begged question city, huh.
There are a lot of parameters which can only be guessed. The simulators we have to date cannot literally dig down to first physical principles — we have insufficient data for that. So we basically have a display of a faked puppet show, with fudge factors galore.
For some reason, on reading your post and how you describe the models, I immediately thought of the part where he says “look at the monkey”: http://youtu.be/clKi92j6eLE