I only trust Helmut Norpoth, that’s why I’m so confodent in a TRUMP win
Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton 52.5% to 47.5% in the popular vote and the probability is down to 87% from 97% predicts Professor Helmut Norpoth
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-norpoth/trump-nearcertain-to-defe_b_9403762.html
While I am optimistic about Trumps chances, it it not because of the “PRIMARY MODEL” prediction.
Rather, I concur with the following comment at your link:
“I would caution that a stable, consistent environment determines the predictive ability of any model. If the environment changes, the model’s ability can go out the window.
Nothing about the election campaigns this year has been anticipated. All of the “experts” have been wrong. And “experts” are the people who build models.”