[KavMan]

I only trust Helmut Norpoth, that’s why I’m so confodent in a TRUMP win

Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton 52.5% to 47.5% in the popular vote and the probability is down to 87% from 97% predicts Professor Helmut Norpoth

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-norpoth/trump-nearcertain-to-defe_b_9403762.html

[jonno]

While I am optimistic about Trumps chances, it it not because of the “PRIMARY MODEL” prediction.

Rather, I concur with the following comment at your link:
“I would caution that a stable, consistent environment determines the predictive ability of any model. If the environment changes, the model’s ability can go out the window.

Nothing about the election campaigns this year has been anticipated. All of the “experts” have been wrong. And “experts” are the people who build models.”

[Right Wing Assault]

That Norpoth prediction was made on Mar 07, 2016 based on the primaries. Today is 6 months out from then. His system has worked very well before, but the dems are much better cheaters these days, so we'll see.