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I’m not totally discounting anyone, I’m expressing severe doubts that someone whose training amounts to weekends of “point and shoot” is going to be able to be anything close to combat effective against someone who could outrun them while still carrying 50 pounds of equipment, spot them on IR before they even know they’re targeted, and plant a C4 brick in their getaway vehicle so that when the survivors drive off they can light up whatever hidey-hole they drive to.

We will not be fighting conscripts standing in neat lines with big white bullseyes right over their chests and an effective range of about a football field with their inaccurate single-shot musket. There will be few places to hide from the eyes in the sky; what happens when word gets around that ‘head for the hills’ in the deepest forest still doesn’t save your rebel squad or your family camper from being blown sky high?

And meaning no personal offense, soldier, but I expect that most of you will follow orders because that is what they brutally indoctrinate you to do from your first day in Basic. Even discounting that, would you still sympathize when one of the rebels manages to drill one of your buddies or would you blow him to hamburger just like any other threat like you’ve been trained to do since the day they put an assault rifle in your hands?

I agree with your analysis, but I do not think it will be a fight like that.

I would suggest that there will be no revolution like that envisioned by the survivalists, simply a decline in the ability of the federal government to do anything. The same government that allowed federal law to be usurped by states with pot, refused to allow states to enforce immigration law and ignored cities that defied the government are not going to have enough Federal officers to enforce any unpopular gun law, in fact it will be openly ignored.

That is what is happening in New York now, once you get outside of Westchester county (north) and Albany. The safe act which does not allow assault weapons is being ignored by almost all law enforcement officials outside of those jurisdictions. Of the 1 million plus arms which should have been registered, less than 40,000 were or a compliance rate of ~less than 4 % The same is true in Connecticut. It has not hit the mainstream press as of yet, but the limits of compliance have been reached. Rural America is not going to disarm and the local police are not going to enforce laws that are unpopular, especially when the inner city folks are making threats of violence, and heading out to the suburbs. BLM have made local police suddenly aware of how much they depend on the local population supporting them to function.

As for the nation as a whole: The published figures say there are around 12 million AR15/AR10 rifle variants in circulation. That figure came from the ATF (reported on an HBO propaganda film) and pretty much included every thing made from September of 1963 until late 2015 or 52 years of production. How many were added this year? 500,000, 800,000? who knows? There are something like 10 million Remington model 870s shotguns made, 5 million Mossberg model 500 and something like 7 million Remington model 700 guns. There are over 1 million M1 Garands in circulation, 1.5~2 million M1 carbines, around 220,000 M1A (M14 pattern). So adding up these military pattern arms, there are at least 37 million post 1945 US military pattern long arms in circulation. If you could somehow round up 70 % of them (a figure not even achieved in Australia in 1996/1997) you are still left with over 10 million arms of US military pattern. I would guess only 50% of the arms owned by folks are owned by the original 447s3 purchaser, so even getting a 50 % compliance rate would be difficult. Likely a New York 4~5% figure is much more likely.