“IF trump is gettin 20% of the African American vote, he’s ahead by a hell of a lot more than 2 points....”
Not really. If the AA vote is only 12% of the sample, as in line with their % of the population, then a move of 20% is only a swing of 2.4% points or less of the total sample.
Yes its only 2.4% of the sample, but its at least a 2.5% rough swing for Trump as Hillary should have about 90% support... her losing 10% more of the black community is her down 1.2% and trump up 1.2%... meaning by this poll that Trump’s lead is 100% the extra 10% of blacks.. which is not realistic in the least, if he’s got double the traditional support among blacks, he’s got fare more than a 2% lead... the samples are off somewhere to only show a 2 point lead with Trump getting 20% of the black vote.