One thing to add ... You aren’t going to see Trump move in the polls until October ... I’ll bet the election remains kind of flat until the first debate.
Trump’s campaign is going to start airing ads ... I’ll bet they’ll ramp up in frequency until the first debate. After that I’m hoping for a blitz throughout October. If that’s their strategy, there are going to be a lot of nervous people posting Hillary friendly polls for another month :-). If Trumps numbers don’t improve throughout October, I’ll be nervous.
Bottom line, the campaign is going to start next month, so please try and do your best to ignore these polls for now :-) (not saying this to you TexasFreeper ... Mainly to people nervous in general ... While I’ve certainly been wrong about many things, I’m pretty sure I’m right about this strategy).
I think Trump has done an outstanding job solidifying his base during his campaign stops this summer. This final phase should grow his support and push him over the top. It’s gonna be HUGE!!! :-)
We’ll see in October if there is a turnaround.
But you can’t really argue with USC/Dornslife unless you want say Trump has hidden support. That may or may not be true.
With all the problems Hillary has, she should be far worse off but the race is still hers to lose.
You can clearly see that for the entire race Hillary has been stuck at 41 and Trump at 38, except right around the conventions where the numbers moved a bit in each’s direction until reverting right back to where they were before.
Yes, anyone can pick apart an individual poll.
But the BIG picture shows Clinton with a consistent 3 point lead or so.
So if Clinton is leading Trump consistently by 3 or so, why am I so confident Trump will win?
Because 41+38= 79
There is a missing 21 !!!!
Does ANYONE really believe that the two 3rd party candidates are going to get a combined 21% ? 15% ? 10%? heck! they'd be lucky to get 5% on a good day COMBINED.
So... lets just for the sake of argument give the two 3rd party candidates 5% combined.
That leaves a missing 16%.
Does anyone believe that there is ANYONE in the world that is “undecided” about Hillary Clinton? Because I sure as heck don't !
Which means that 16% are either:
1. undecided about TRUMP
2. are for Trump but wont admit it to a pollster (or anyone else for that matter)
I believe the Trump is a mixture of both 1 and 2.
And like you I believe that those who are currently undecided about Trump will ultimately decide after the debates in October.
After the debates one of three things will happen:
Hillary's numbers will move up into the high 40’s consistently - this will indicate a close race and probable Hillary win.
Hillary's numbers will move up into the low 50’s consistently - this will indicate a blowout for Hillary.
or Trumps numbers will move up into the mid to high 40’s - this will indicate a Trump blowout. Because Trump will NEVER poll above 50% consistently because of the fear of those being polled of being judged negatively which I believe is skewing the polls 3-5 points.